• Handicaps are a draft calculation; TEG 20 handicaps haven't been saved yet.
  • No scorecard yet for rounds 1, 2, 3, 4: each simulation draws a random par-72 course from the 19 on file.
Players
Running…
Model settings

How the simulation builds each player's scoring. The defaults suit most uses.

Widens the SI window until it holds this many of the player's holes of that par.

Custom boundaries override the preset. 4,9,14 gives SI 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-18.

Pulls thin SI-band cells toward the player's overall par distribution. 0 = raw.

Mixes in the whole group's scores, matched to the player's average, so things they haven't done yet (a first eagle) can happen. 0 = only their own scores.

TEG weights Reset
TEG All players Share Alex BAKER David MULLIN Gregg WILLIAMS Jon BAKER John PATTERSON
TEG 19
TEG 18
TEG 17
TEG 16 –
TEG 15
TEG 14 –
TEG 13
TEG 12
TEG 11
TEG 10
TEG 9
TEG 8 –
TEG 7 –
TEG 6 – –
TEG 5 – –
TEG 4 – –
TEG 3 – –
TEG 2 – –

Tick Custom to give one player their own weights, for example to skip a year they were injured. Unticked columns follow the All players weights.

Sampling distributions

What each player's hole scores are drawn from, by par and stroke index.

Hole typeWindow Eagle or betterBirdiePar+1+2+3+4 or worse NEffNMean vs par
Par 3 / SI 1-2SI 1-14 0%1%26%49%5%8%10% 24 18.5 +1.39
Par 3 / SI 3-4SI 1-14 0%1%24%52%6%8%9% 24 15.3 +1.38
Par 3 / SI 5-6SI 1-14 0%1%27%46%5%9%11% 24 18.6 +1.49
Par 3 / SI 7-8SI 1-14 0%1%27%42%6%11%12% 24 15.8 +1.61
Par 3 / SI 9-10SI 5-14 0%1%31%45%6%7%10% 22 15.6 +1.30
Par 3 / SI 11-12SI 7-16 0%1%30%40%12%6%11% 34 22.3 +1.31
Par 3 / SI 13-14SI 11-16 0%3%35%30%20%6%5% 22 18.4 +1.05
Par 3 / SI 15-16SI 13-18 0%2%32%35%22%4%4% 36 25.7 +1.10
Par 3 / SI 17-18SI 15-18 0%2%35%34%17%4%8% 30 22.6 +1.13
Par 4 / SI 1-2SI 1-2 0%0%1%14%39%32%13% 22 19.0 +2.55
Par 4 / SI 3-4SI 1-6 0%3%5%20%33%27%12% 54 40.4 +2.25
Par 4 / SI 5-6SI 3-8 0%2%6%26%26%24%15% 42 32.2 +2.20
Par 4 / SI 7-8SI 5-10 0%0%6%33%22%17%22% 40 29.1 +2.29
Par 4 / SI 9-10SI 7-12 0%0%7%43%18%14%17% 38 27.9 +2.02
Par 4 / SI 11-12SI 9-14 0%0%7%50%17%19%8% 37 30.2 +1.73
Par 4 / SI 13-14SI 11-16 0%0%10%44%18%22%6% 26 18.0 +1.70
Par 4 / SI 15-16SI 11-18 0%0%8%39%19%26%8% 28 22.9 +1.89
Par 4 / SI 17-18SI 11-18 0%0%7%35%19%30%7% 28 17.7 +1.97
Par 5 / SI 1-2SI 1-8 0%4%12%18%28%24%15% 22 17.4 +2.10
Par 5 / SI 3-4SI 1-8 0%3%14%15%25%27%16% 22 14.7 +2.11
Par 5 / SI 5-6SI 3-8 0%5%7%16%33%18%21% 20 14.2 +2.24
Par 5 / SI 7-8SI 5-10 0%4%6%15%33%26%16% 20 15.4 +2.31
Par 5 / SI 9-10SI 5-14 0%6%15%19%24%24%11% 35 28.2 +1.82
Par 5 / SI 11-12SI 9-14 0%10%22%27%18%18%6% 21 14.4 +1.29
Par 5 / SI 13-14SI 11-16 0%4%27%28%21%13%7% 24 19.0 +1.39
Par 5 / SI 15-16SI 13-18 0%0%20%34%24%10%12% 22 17.5 +1.70
Par 5 / SI 17-18SI 13-18 0%0%17%36%24%13%9% 22 17.8 +1.68

Share of holes at each score vs par, after weighting. EffN is the weighted effective sample size. Window is the SI range of holes used for that row.

Results

Run the simulation to see predictions.